There were hints for a while now, and therefore, we cannot really say we’ve been surprised. Reliance Jio, Airtel and subsequently Vi (formerly Vodafone Idea) have decided the timing is right to pull the trigger on making prepaid and some postpaid plans more expensive. Whatever the jokes or casual analysis on X may say, there are two main reasons why you’ll be paying more for your mobile connection, irrespective of whether you’re using prepaid or postpaid as the method. It’ll be interesting to see whether these tariffs hold, or do we begin to see a drop in active mobile connections in the coming months. Perhaps, a few will discard second or third active SIMs (more of these will be the prepaid variety), to keep expenses in check. After all, the hikes across Jio and Airtel are upwards of 10%, more as you move up the price ladder for higher spec plan.
This is an unflinching pursuit towards improving ARPU (a favourite term used by telcos, it means average revenue per user) stats. There may be realisation users won’t necessarily “upgrade”, a learning from extended efforts of bundling streaming subscriptions to enhance the value proposition. Not enough users played ball.
It is also the commencement of a long-pending attempt at monetisation of 5G services. By increasing the minimum criteria for the unlimited 5G bundle, users are being gently nudged to pay more. After all, 1GB per day or 1.5GB per day don’t get you much far, at 5G speeds and what you’d typically be using it for (those Reels and WhatsApp video downloads add up quickly).
Before I get into the specifics of how Reliance Jio and Airtel have structured the tariff hikes (Vi too followed, but does anyone really care?), here’s some data for perspective. The latest ARPU numbers for Jio hovered around ₹181.7 while Airtel’s was slightly higher at ₹208, as Vi lagged at around ₹135. Airtel’s been pretty clear about targeting average revenue per user of ₹300 by the end of FY25. Jio hasn’t recently mentioned any numbers, but over the past 12 months, their focus on postpaid plans itself is an indicator that want a higher paying, premium user base, within their subscription fold. By making you and I pay more for prepaid and postpaid packs, mobile service providers will inch towards that target.
So, how much more expensive are your Airtel and Jio packs really getting? Jio’s prepaid entry point, the ₹155 pack (28-day validity; 2GB data) will now cost ₹189. The 28-day validity packs (which Jio in their communication calls “monthly” for some strange reason) see an up to ₹50 increase. The bigger impact is on longer duration packs, often the choice for more users, due to convenience – those are almost ₹100 up on previous tariffs for 56-day plans. There an up to ₹140 hike on 84-day validity options (the 2GB per day plan increases from ₹719 to ₹859). Annual pack is now ₹500 dearer. For the unlimited 5G add-on pack to be available, you must be on a 2GB per day or higher pack. But you’ve got to pay.
I say that, because if you’re thinking of porting to Airtel, that’s even more expensive at every step. For all intents and purposes, base users would consider the 1GB data per day pack with 28-day validity – for Jio’s new pricing of ₹249, Airtel would demand ₹299 now. Smartly enough, Airtel’s also bumping up to a 2GB per day pack for the unlimited 5G plan to be available, but for that, you must pay for a 56-day or 84-day validity from the outset (there is no 2GB/day plan for 28-days or a month). All in all, telecom service providers have got you exactly where they want you – extensive data usage on a daily basis now part of our daily routines, and they now want you to pay for the higher spec plans to make use of unlimited 5G. No longer is that an option on the lower priced plans, and believe me, 1GB per day or 1.5GB per day of bundled data, wouldn’t get you far at 5G speeds and bandwidth intensive content we’ve become used to.
MOBILE?
A bit more with 5G as context. The Ericsson Mobility Report is one data set that I always keep an eye on. They do a rather good job of mapping, with context, India’s evolving status with mobile network connectivity, usage trends and what to expect. The June 2024 report points out that 5G subscriptions in India reached around 119 million by the end of 2023, which is around 10% of the total market. That percentage might not seem as big at first glance, but it’s a number that’s been achieved in a mere 12 months (the 5G rollout timed for October, the year before). The key to this has been Airtel and Jio’s mid-band deployments across telecom circles, which Ericsson estimates is covering more than 90 percent of the connected population coverage – at least that was true till the end of 2023, and the number would only logically increase.
The Ericsson Mobility Report estimates India’s mobile subscriptions will touch around 1.3 billion by the end of the year 2029. However, important to provide the context here that these estimates are from before Airtel, Jio and Vi announced new tariff hikes for prepaid and postpaid connections. The question here is, if India’s telecom journey is now embarking on an era of price recalibration (read, increase) and if that trend is to continue for the next couple of years as operators look to rationalise ARPUs and earn money from 5G networks, would India continue to add new users at the same rate as it has for most part of the last decade. And the decade before that. I fear, we may see a slight tilt in the opposite direction, as households look to trim the fat amidst financial rationalisation, and expensive secondary or even third mobile connections, facing the chop.
